What’s going on with the Turkish Lira?
21/12/2021 – After Erdogan’s statements, the dollar, euro and gold fell sharply.
After the messages given by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the Cabinet meeting, there was a sharp decline in the exchange rate. The dollar and Euro rate, which gained more than 10 percent in value during the day yesterday, tended to depreciate by more than 30 percent on a day-to-day basis after Erdogan’s statements.
The precaution to the economy and the support package for TL, announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after the cabinet meeting yesterday, had a positive impact on the markets. In Erdoğan’s statements, messages regarding the new regulation to be made for TL deposits, the support package for exporters and the increase in the state contribution to 30 percent in the PPS came to the fore.
Trade Team Forecast
For us, the Turkish lira with EUR / TRY 20 TL or USD / TRY 18.40 TL was not understandable. We assume manipulation. The current rates of EUR / TRY 14.80 TL and USD / TRY 13.09 TL are pretty realistic. We think that the course will change a little less in the near future than in the last 3 months. The price will slowly but surely lose value again. Perhaps the EUR / TRY 16.00 TL or USD / TRY 15.00 TL will be reached again in the summer of 2022.